The Indicator from Planet Money - The Economy In 2030

What will the global economy look like in a decade? Mauro Guillen joins the show to talk about 2030, his new book where he analyzes the economic trends of the future.

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everyone happy New Year is Cardiff and this is the indicator from Planet Money matter Guillen is a professor of International Management at the Wharton School and is the author of a new book called 20-30 in which he tries to anticipate what the world is going to look like in 2030 in about a decade based on some of the trends that we can already see now and it says the pandemic has actually accelerated some of these Trends most obviously the shift to a more digitized more automated economy. Look my only regret is that instead of calling the books 2013 now I think I'm more accurate title would be 2028. So I wouldn't say 2021 or 2022 that would be an exaggeration. But yes, the future is arriving much faster than we thought there's also other trends that model predicts are going to really surprise people when they finally become reality. These are trends that might

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Independent bigger effects on the world than a lot of people are able to grasp right now the problem you see is that so many things are changing and in the book I essential refer to three types of friends. Friends having to do with population Trends having to do with the economy and Emerging Markets Allen finally technological Trends. I definitely feel that way then on Today Show, you're going to find out what the world actually might look like in a decade amount of shares a few of his 2030 predictions based on his research that he did for his book right after the break.

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Marianne Walkin the podcast. I'm really happy to be here. So I am just going to list off the predictions for 2030 from your book and just like rapid fire and ask you to kind of tell us why they matter. So first up by 2030 there will be more industrial robots than manufacturing workers. What does that mean? And why is it important? What we got? We are entering a new face in terms of automation wonder is going to be affecting the manufacturing sector, but let's not forget also the service sector like even my occupation teaching right and what it means I think is that robots are becoming increasingly more intelligent than we going to be in the situation in which we're going to have large numbers of people who are technologically an employee who can no longer work in the kinds of occupations that they used to so big challenges. There's no question of the same time be covered entities.

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Or essentially eliminating the human factor from belly dangerous jobs.

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Or also eliminating menotomy from the kinds of jobs that we perform. Yeah, and if there's jobs don't exist anymore. You're right that that means that the people who used to do those jobs may find themselves out of work, but won't they possibly also lead to new kinds of jobs to replace the jobs that are lost so many new jobs that involve creativity that involve negotiation skills, social skills technical knowledge and so on and so forth that sometimes the people who lose their jobs, especially they're in their late 40s or 50s. They find it very difficult.

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To find another line of work and what I hope is that in the next few years. We don't make the same mistake that we've been making over the last 20 years or so, which is to forget about them. So that's why I think as a society we're going to have to take very bold actions to address that problem. Okay next change globally by 2030 there will be more grandparents 10 grandchildren. Why does that matter? Well, every generation has you know, he's a smaller than the preceding one because the number of babies is falling everywhere in the world even in sub-Saharan Africa a little over there. They're still having on average each woman about four or four-and-a-half babies now these matters because before we know it certainly before the year 2030 the largest segments in consumer markets, it's going to be that of the population of off age 60 for the first time. So companies Brands will have no option but to pay attention to that demographic now as you can imagine,

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Going to have major implications for pension systems for healthcare sector and four politics, right? Because they priorities of that age group are going to be very different from the priorities for the younger age groups, which is it women will own more of the global wealth than men by 2030. Yes, and this is something that has been in the making for a very long time.

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Women as you know now make more than 50% of college graduates.

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They are English me pursuing careers. And although there is still considerable wage discrimination between men and women for the same kinds of jobs that women are making a lot of progress in terms of their income and wealth accumulation. Now in addition to that the other factor that will in the end result in that situation with more than half of the wealth in the world would be owned by women that I've seen all women live longer than men on average and they stay healthier for a longer. Of time than men in their lives. And so they would have more time to be productive earn an income. And of course there are more likely to inherit from their Partners or spouses than the other way around. Okay, next prediction, the global economy will be driven by the non-western consumer for the first time in modern history. What's going on there. Well you do

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Used to be at some point the largest country market in the world then came to United States and at some point between now and the year 2030 China will become the biggest consumer Market.

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Overtaking the United States of the number one by the way by the year, maybe 20 45 or so. India will become as a consumer Market even bigger than China right? But if you put together all of the marketing Anisha, undoubtedly that part of the world is going to be the center of gravity of global consumption and there are many implications of one of them. I think the really important one is that every company in the world will be paying attention primarily to the Asian consumer not so much any longer to the American Consumer which as you know happiness center of attention for the last fifty or sixty years will also have big geopolitical effects as well. Write it mean if your opinion and American companies are going to have to start relatively catering more towards consumers beyond their borders. What do you think of solutely I mean, all of these Trends will in the end result in a very different balance.

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In terms of economic political geopolitical power in the world and if I may be even more specific, I think what we are witnessing these days is a big clash between the middle class is the American middle class of consumers in Asia and the 2nd or 3rd Generation middle class that we have in the United States are in Europe are their incomes and Rising hours are stagnant We Major not only economic consequence if I do some political once again, thanks so much. Thank you so much for having me again is called 2030 how today's biggest Trends will collide and reshape the future of everything. This episode of the indicator was produced by Britney Cronin and fact check by Shawn. Saldania Patty Hearst edit the indicator and the indicator is a production of NPR.
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