What'd You Miss This Week - Don't Expect August to Be Kind to Markets or the Labor Market

This week, Mona Mahajan, U.S. investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors, joined with her outlook - discussing whether the massive outperformance from tech stocks is justified and why she is expecting August to bring more risks and volatility for markets. Tiffany Wilding, U.S. economist at PIMCO, came on to react to the jobless claims and explain why the V-shaped recovery in April and May won't last. Sonos CEO Patrick Spence joined after the company's earnings and said why he is confident

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What you make this week on Caroline high this podcast has some of our favorite in division the daily Market close show that Iko Iko is romaine Bostick Taylor Riggs. NJ wiesenthal what you miss traffic buy tickets off your weekend.

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We started the week with a Market Outlook from Mona Mahajan us investment special justed Allianz Global Investors. We told him owner about whether the massive outperformance. We seen from text. It's Justified. My She is expecting August to bring more risk to started by asking her if she was set up for for the volatility.

00:00:56
Let you know the book historically as you just mentioned there tends to be volatility in the months of August and September these are not typically of course. We are also a presidential election cycle presidential election cycle after election day in interesting times should have some opportunities. I mean, this is also about the election. I was going to talk about the back saying we're still technically in a recession or at least an economic downturn here.

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That equities are at or near record highs right now loose on the two main industries that we keep an eye on the NASDAQ and S&P 500 for a little bit of a bastard of the year because he wants to get the election results. There could be some time to figure out actually occur in the US.

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Yeah, you know look at the gray point. I think generally investors are looking at what can be the mortgage higher technology is generally that's only give me a list package to feel that cannot be supported by changing. Where do you think we are in terms of tan?

00:03:22
On the right side with record highs appropriately price at this point given earnings generally pretty good. I think a lot of eyes were on last Thursday's earnings report for the big cats have names for them very nicely and running running late because it's probably already moved nearly 55% since. March 23rd low ID technology may have benefited from a digital economy.

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NetSpend not Technologies Focus forward and the rising tensions between the US and China when it comes to technology and Chinese technology transfer technology and indeed the geographical terms of trade

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You know, it is interesting. It just kind of made in China prospective to be a little bit of skepticism in ministration had noted that there is a little bit of still uncertainty resentment coming out of this Administration.

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Are there any more material any real moves to remove big Tech economy? I guess is that concern you at all with regards to how you position yourself and really that's how you plan for the future of the economic recovery in any sort of potential gains from here in the market generally speaking about

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Billy the cyclical sectors

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headspace fundamentals for all-encompassing

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We also spoke with Tiffany Walden pimco's us Economist Adam Jones day to get her Outlook and reaction to this week's jobless claims Tiffany explain why the v-shaped recovery we saw back in April to May When Ross and why we should be bracing ourselves for a painful Orchestra board.

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What I think I think of a wide array of indicators that we look at the conclusion that we draw is that job momentum slowed and slowed quite notably in July. So we got we got a million job games in June. We think that slows the closer to a million you have to be a little bit careful because there's some seasonal Court in in the in the data around education payrolls know just because teachers that get laid off and stuff like that. So you really think the private payroll number is what you should be looking at and that number at you know, that number could slow, you know. Something like 500 500 thousand but you overall I'm on the claims date continuing claim stated that you mentioned they did take lower but I think it's important to keep in mind that we had we still have 15 million people there on the regular State unemployment programs. That's quite a lot.

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And if you look at the various extensions in unemployment programs, we got to take care Jack and include those it's around 30 million people that are still receiving some sort of unemployment insurance benefit. So it's still quite dramatically High even though there might have been some incremental Improvement in this week's number at the cameras are acting and some of the other government program to upload me some semblance of Labor Market strength apps between the programs and whatever new program ends up getting worked out in Congress. Does that then have a potentially meaningful effect on the economic that we're going to see for the next couple of months?

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Yeah, it absolutely does. So, you know, I think it's not if there's going to be a last I think it is there is going to be laughed as we know Silly unemployment insurance benefit booster recall booster from the federal government on which is emergency unemployment benefit that you get over and above your regular State programs that actually expired at the end of July so we know that that's already left. So that was about $600 a week. You know what I mentioned about 31 million people were receiving that benefit of if you look across all of the programs, so that's actually quite a big number, you know, what kind of when you look at it relative to relative to spending or things like that. So we actually think that you know is if we get some sort of legislation pass that the further extend the you know, that unemployment insurance benefits, you're still going to kind of have that labs in August that's in a way on the August data, which will receive in September.

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Head of election as well as right ahead of the FED meeting. So I think the data could actually look pretty bad in August the spending data and things like that as a result of of this lab, you know that you have to keep in mind that although we've had a pretty notable what looked to be kind of a V shape recovery in the economy over at April and May a lot of that as you mentioned resulted from stimulus a boost from stimulus payment. The economy is still very fragile. And I think we're going to see that play out in August, you know, as you kind of get the temporary hopefully temporary removal of a stimulus payment and then things start to start to really decline how important going to really underscore how important be continuing government support is the economic recovery people saving it or spending it.

00:11:35
View, I think it's a little bit of both feel so clearly in the recall the governor in a government official date at the savings rate at the Commerce Department calculate has been very elevated and that tends to happen after any crisis. So savings rates tend to go up because you know, there's a higher number of unemployed people want to save they want to try to increase their Justice discretionary savings for kind of rainy day these rainy day outcomes. In addition to that don't we did see a lot of spending and in particular when we look at like high-frequency measures of data and you can look at them by levels of income what we found was that the decline overall Decline and spending that we've seen since February has actually been the most pronounce in in in people that have higher income levels. And the reason is is because lower income level level folks old though. They lost their job that I hired.

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Case they've been the ones that have really been had seen the benefit and the target of these unemployment benefit programs from the federal government in from elsewhere. So they've actually had a lot of income replacement that's been really good news for them on and as a result. We haven't seen their spending declined by as much so again, I would say this is evidence that the current program that we're seeing from Congress. They are working and they are helping to get us to a recovery. I think faster than we otherwise. What is Defying Gravity.

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Yeah, I know. I think it's I think it isn't very important. It is a very important factor when we think about why it's it's doing what it is. And I think the one of the reasons why it has been stronger is because interest rates are so low. And again, this is a testament to the fact that the Federal Reserve moved very quickly in and its programs. We saw a massive dislocations in the agency mortgage Market as well as the treasury market in mid-march, but the Federal Reserve has been buying treasury Securities as well as agency mortgage Securities and that has reduced those interest rates quite a bit. So we're seeing of you I think a boost and housing activity as a result of low interest rates in addition to that the housing market actually came into this crisis in a pretty strong position how you know, unlike the 2008 financial crisis. For example, we had a really high inventories of available housing inventories were actually quite

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Scares that coming into this crisis already, you know, so I think the combination of you know a pretty strong initial condition and the addition of a very low interest rate is really helping boost the housing market and that's not the only thing that is helping to do is actually you're also seeing a pretty decent at you solid gains in purchases of automobiles and and vehicles. And again, I think that is all that being helped by the fact that we have low interest rates in these things are just more affordable the overall economic Pikachu dpci do when you have a at a 35% contraction in GDP, of course, it's not going to offset that but overall it, you know, if it is a help and ends and again, I think that's why Federal Reserve officials when they get together in September will want to keep these Financial conditions easy want to keep rates low fit to continue that support

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On Wednesday son has reported third-quarter earnings posting a worse-than-expected lost. But the audio product make a did have a bright spot in the results who sing It's both go to end. Reaction from Sonos CEO Patrick spens who told us that he is confident to the company Supply change shift and expects his IP case against Google will go as planned. He started by asking Patrick about his message to investors, but he watches the Ebbs and flows in the shaft price.

00:15:54
I do not it was if I think really the story of Q3 was adaptability and resilience by the team, you know, if I take you back to March April, you know, we're facing a situation where all of our physical retail store closings which of the huge proportion bar sales to really recapture a lot. We were concerned about the quarter up 40% year-over-year. I'm so I am so proud of the way the team responded and the fact we were able to beat expectations Boulevard top-line and bottom-line what might have been missing. I heard you set up Justin Bieber One Time One Time expenses. We actually work.

00:16:54
Here we are in an excellent position. And I think if we chat in a weather a storm like this feeling right now even more confident that we're in position to be successful. What was the cost of the man here are Patrick with a lot of consumer product comp products companies that have sold a lot of devices within so to this pandemic in this economic downturn from sales at might have come down the road. There's also some concern that if it continues apace necessarily have to buy a new speaker system products in demand and supply and we don't see that changing based on customers right now. We're also seeing from

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Obviously very closely as we look for in the ways that consumers want to engage with our brand and they're doing it large proportion of doing it online and they trust the brand and are purchasing a $800 product sing it for us to meet that demand and how is the supply chain shift going? So we are supply chain really to address the Tariff issue yesterday.

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Actually be something that floats or bottom line, which is great news and so are pushed into Malaysia, but ultimately I will be there in up and running fully by mid 2021 original goal had been later this year will be in good shape.

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About the patent debate fight, whatever you want to put it with Google the US International Trade Commission is looking into it at the moment. We're very confident. We signed our second agreement with a competitor that is now paying us a room 242 on that front. Google is our third and we're very confident turns it where we stand. We're very pleased that trial is just around the corner. So we'll see that in February. So we're trying to stand up for all small companies companies that are an intellectual property to do for our people that invented.

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We're pretty early to sort of this home connected speaker market and you really grab a lot of share that I compliment you on the product replacement. All right there for your shoulder there, but it's always going to be just a home plans to maybe do something beyond the weather is portability or Autos what there's a couple different first product. You can imagine we see it. All the time of audio is really the leader in quadrants audio system.

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Are you dealing with a privacy concern? Yeah, we have been running through our privacy policy for a long time. And if we have some of the most probably sensitive and valuable in the world that are size customers who we acquired a company technology company last year earlier this year, which is very focused on privacy. We think there is more work to be done in my space and we think we have a unique perspective on that and so I'd say stay tuned for a little more on what we're doing enough from the future.

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Then I had a wide-ranging conversation with mop boy who helps manage Bailey if it's a long time Global growth Equity Fund, which is bitching 99% of it is and it's me ya, I know what to 37% year-to-date Mark has two decades of experience investing in China and told me why he thinks the rise of nationalism in China will ultimately do more harm to American companies. The Chinese one. We spoke ahead of the White House's announcement that it was expanding its pixel time to include we buy tencent one of the funds biggest bet. I thought by asking about the funds winning formula and if that picks Netflix Amazon antenna sent for example, well if they work so well right now will they Remain the pics of the future?

00:23:16
If I don't think he's that kind of Junction are DNA and and looking for gross investment fist-fighting destructive companies companies that have longevity of gross Rhapsody right that the pandemic and its consequences has accelerated. So it's not gross and what we're trying to do at the moment. There's two really just aggravates two categories. Are there ways to tie dye a sudden burst of the man been on since I've been gone forward. Then there are companies for whom this episode. I think will Mark fundamental change in the behavioral changes in the way. We asked consumers with Enterprises interact an example of a Peloton where the critique ask me how I feel without it is a very nice New York, Edinborough London production NFL go to the masses people like crate training at home doesn't work.

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Open a many countries and their car socially distance the hygiene factors that I see the luxury of training with the best sources of company and my job as a long-term investor has stopped to think. What is the demand pass turn in Orchard Street 2020. It's the trying to visualize the future in 2020 2013 on the whole week near me halfway with the portfolio and your many of us have been accelerated between the opportunity or larger of the Starship trench twenty, of course Parts Group processes and investors going to each individual named an assassin goes to there are some companies that I would agree with you. There's nothing to be full full forward the share price for motorcycle backpack purses of individual names because you didn't look at the Sexes and goodness knows you didn't like the so cool sector of Technology.

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Names of Italian phrase I think the word technology is so overused. It's almost it's almost empty and vacuous and then let me explain that investment in 1996. And I was the young guy on the teams. Of course. I was the technology analyst technology software and Mike Pence Houston and you know, you two services and companies made the revenues from selling goods and services as traditionally the sector you fast forward it today and underwear Technologies used. So ubiquitously travel companies Expedia booking.com Z-Trip the seat of technology companies Peloton that is it electric company and then you can go through Netflix, isn't it is a media company they live or die on how much revenue day they take from those areas. So we think

00:26:16
Sexual analysis is actually in pupusas quite quite large constraints on your imagination and the global economy is so fluids and I'm two companies were able to invest in yourself that actually trying to be very bottom up processing each company on its own merits opportunity said we think his is one of the secrets of success in his is it is always try to avoid some of the behavioral issues which is always trying to invest in markets in predicting the future of an economy that is being put to the test in times of a share of the moment from China in the United States tencent like the future of Zoom, which is currently trying to distance itself. Touch me from the Chinese government within this tussle that goes on how do you see the geopolitical landscape and design

00:27:16
In countries such as China. Yes. It's a fundamental question that I think real grappling with it as she raises a tad depending on how the politics today but it is a right and the rise of nationalism within countries the rise of Scar statism provincialism. If she likes closing the borders as it is very unusual and my personal view is is that much of this is a very long-term moved by testing the 20th century and the 21st century will be quite different in terms of the economic data centers ships that are going on are moving East that's very hard to cope with and that's where most of the tanks and Anglo-Saxon countries comes from cuz they're losing market share.

00:28:16
Are there Reasons I'm Competitive Edge. So I think it's actually in the New York City in the London Tube the world's it is in the Beijing and Shanghai, but when one travels and goes there and they don't need the markets of Great Britain and the United States to succeed very huge opportunities on their own doorstep with domestically office table. Also more widely in Southeast Asia. So I do think the somerset accuracy School absence Louis up my device be immune to that follow Rivers opportunities are so that's why China is so attractive to us the growth opportunities which one sees there and I really very hard to replicate them in other Joker face.

00:29:08
Could you see a bifurcated? Well, do you see to technology systems almost one in the US? Where are they now know Chinese winners in the same way that China had already brought the u.s. Winners apart from Microsoft staking a claim on a purpose of the next country to I think there is a large do a civil case that we are in an election year. I had to be enforceable due Elijah station, and that's not fair to say that it does feel as if those two competing citizens are there and that's good news and in many ways

00:30:08
Austin Police Going Hammer and tongs at each other in the same way that I'm addicted to into China and I really quite quickly realized it wasn't able to compete with Alibaba and Daytona strength, but I think we could see those this technology strands if you see anything there their existing areas.

00:30:29
Caveat to that would be the Asian companies have by far the most attractive near and Market the potential to invest and get access to assessing the investment opportunities in China. We can travel at the moment. You can go get your own boots on the ground looking at seeing day to in that pond.

00:30:56
Yes, we were you are lucky to open up a research office in Shanghai last year the tail-end this last year and a lot of people in this the planting so that's very useful cutting investment researchers on the grinder and 53 child arranged to meet management teams. I meant to provide updates and biting a snootful information, but if it can be extremely hard to get data that doesn't have an angle of journalists. You have an axe to grind on me on both sides and the last five months could probably spend more time speaking to Management's jr. And then I had in the previous six months or so in some ways. It's it's it's very easy access to jump.

00:31:56
Change the date to discuss these things and search for us very much trying to go to the companies themselves to find out what is actually happening in hide their stinky butt in the next 5 or 10 years. That long-term perspective is Faisal to us. It's too easy to get thrown into the short-term. What's happening stock prices what's happening to the course? They are nang's but actually asked for me. It's about trying to attack by 10 years really thinking highly the world's shapes that and I'm have it looks it over that timeframe.

00:32:32
Eats on the streets and in China has been extremely useful and businesses respond to be able to meet that still keep an eye on the future.

00:32:53
Yes, and we we we we can't log into my almost a path to Redemption take the Titanic when buying it nearly cost. This year was much more of an environmental angle that we were taking this, you know that the surprise of their Global Travel before the time. I think they've reacted incredibly. Well it is gross investigation and I'm managing a company that is brewing that rapidly is a really hard task and I'm extremely well and was feed in chess each osmosis features. We always try to look for in computer are what is the culture of the company's assets? But I think it's really important than delivering long-term trying to impress me with my interactions with the CEO there for them to be extremely happy with themselves.

00:33:53
Was overconfident but actually I'm from Pigeon are most recent conversation and Eric is most concerned about it was that they shoot your eye off the ball and turn security when they were using it to education emulate. Would you be looking at all those stories and then that was a big issue and he was extremely disappointed that they had an organization. They salted butter that has case to the Enterprise pieces of State on accident. So I think about to suffer from that says that they're reacting understall so they're clearly extremely and delighted of the number of these cases and has has X as it has an m in the last six months. They also thinks it would only just getting going into their many many more things were still able to choose that technology and I think that's that's what I'm looking forward about how geopolitics plays as well and has potential for winning and winning big in the West.

00:34:53
east and west

00:34:56
I think I would very is it you know yet. We'll see you some cells in fairies from from company to company, you know, there's there's definitely some companies you still have Global operations and then you quite rightly. So because some of the products which they they they also ran under the Technologies years and stopped my conservation and to take something for when you mention Netflix earlier. I think Netflix's is what is the most remarkable companies are one of the most remarkable Days Inn by investment careers when they said they were going overseas and in a big way, they can test the 38 countries The Returned on overnight in Walmart times you that, you know, you're lying can't do that physical assets there. So so there is

00:35:56
I think we got speakerphone with moisturizers of nationalism on the China us restaurant companies that still have assigned Global opportunities and an embassy suite 1C your sister to sister still be addressing that can a distance from the countries that they think they all the epicenter the well I'm able to see how pops geopolitics in China but elsewhere as well.

00:36:33
Yeah, we know I'll just say that the situation and inform call has definitely created a farmer headlines make my own observations are having having real globulin for circuit racing on going and you know it in terms of sine. And I meant to say that there are several that are interesting and I are really that concerned about these companies in times of will so emotional speak a joke about how hot it is C used to think for the 5 to 10 years and don't get caught up in the moment and tons of asphalt Price Rite Aid.

00:37:33
Heads when they saying when something is Vindicated, how do you do that? How do you maintain the cob? Yeah, I think he experienced Ashley house. So I got a meeting this 24 years. I've lived through your previous Market Market crises and dislocations and TV shows of I think it's important to say that in many cases valuations are only really keeping up with gross in a sense that we are seeing companies with with astonishing and Play Chalk Outline and an earnings numbers early in my career would have been really Unsinkable completed the same processor 35 or 40 45% growth is often forgotten the market yet show my all taken on the individual Forester an individual earnings release that direction if you sit back,

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Lowest you can create huge and revenue streams in a not so ultimate.

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Set the share price is over long periods of time. We think the United States is it eventually work where there there? There's not many Global multinational companies based up here so you can you can

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Awesome distance from Lassen and the ability to think and Thomas isolate yourself from some of the Madding noises. That is Carson markets. It is Parson Brown heartbeat Wilson County and consistent process. It's really important to asking the same questions again and again of companies.

00:39:14
What causes your top line look like over the next 5 or 10 years? What would you contribute to society What's the culture of your business? What what's the direction of overturns hear? What doesn't the market understands? Those are the sorts of questions that we go through social questions in a way. Would you contribute to society the culture do you feel that that a pot of ESG is just access just a necessary part of investing.

00:39:41
I think it could be one of the defining strands of out of the next 10 years. If it's been a huge change over the course of my career is when I started ESG was Caesar betrayed all the company Michelle served in a good social behavior. Will it be as profitable extra costs? And I think I think I look for an incredible and I might of social responsibility from Enterprise nothing. That's a that's a really good thing. There's no real hiding place. But I think your voice is that can I be an extremely powerful competitive Advantage companies doing the right thing this if you think of what we're trying to invest in companies for 5:10, and hopefully more years than that. It has to be responsible citizens and to last that long to keep customers coming back to keep the reputation. So I think it's actually intrinsic to long-term investing that you look for it for businesses.

00:40:42
You take that situated and more importantly, but you're that the culture points has employees have leaders have CEOs and two are driven by their own compensation rate. Risen by they can help Society you another provider. So helpfully provide me is an investor. They there a Kubota CV let you know that the revenues near our names that the forecast except for me and 30 specifically. I think it is more than a science meet us that and I have something to feel like I should do. Well. Jeff Bezos Robinson can contribute to society when everyone is so enraptured by just how much wealthy has or why how he's going to respond to regulate.

00:41:42
Capital Health, but how do you say he's in the business ever think about 15 years. It was held on how you think that he's managed to all societies name.

00:41:53
I can't eat cube in a far better place than submit my my modest if you would be a couple of fundamental things that Amazon has absolutely and driven dime the cost of of many items on an animated much more easy for people and to trade in a sense. That is a very good thing for society night. I think the last thing that I could be accused of this price gouging very very competitive industry is so so relentlessly invested in a new areas and in a service Cloud infrastructure and AWS has been a lot more cooperation in the last two years of estate in Celsius.

00:42:43
The best I can I think his is a substantial contribution to society. It also shows up in any of those places to work. It is very easy to criticize large companies are listed as a society we go through these phases of Texas is not a servant the fighting lights. We don't like companies getting getting too large and quite rightly. So cuz history is is is dosage with companies which abuse their Market power should be and regulation that is quite hard to see quite High one which regulates Amazon prices up to you. Tell them to their delivery times and it's actually a problem for Regulators because large they want their customers on a daily basis.

00:43:40
You worried about the regular she risked more broadly that it will end up saying Lowe's in post that fit that night. I think I attracted to any portfolio included in that is it called deregulation and precisely for those reasons that device located by it. But at times a politician Draco secretly have to do something and they don't listen to rational attraction to regulate sing big companies despite that might be helping many many members of society. So I I do think you're the most taxes

00:44:34
It is a concern and but actually they're very hard to implement because something like that would probably in trenches competitive position. So we make it even harder for capacitors smaller competitors have to pay sales tax. Check the gate any market share says it's it's

00:44:51
I think it's a sort of inevitable Consequence the size and dominance and then people want to hold large companies and under the microscope that I don't think glasses a Bad Thing per se but I do think that some of the analysis can get quite sliders that you have to go single. What are these large companies doing? That is so destructive negative for society. It is quite hard as a politician stand up and see this this large companies doing very well for society.

00:45:26
Toys R Us about that for the commons the moment way you feel it's time to get out of an Amazon. For example, how do you hold yourself to account to that when you can still see such grave?

00:45:36
and that's where one has to go back to the process than yesterday about the behavioral elements scent and avoiding falling in love with stocks and it is exactly

00:45:47
The Bosphorus would be there probably three factors a real slow down and talk like Bruce Sam is it is actually the other end of that. The momentous is accelerated through the pandemic to write about a 40% Bond rates. And if we saw her come to you now, we have several things to the car line cruise Iceland substantially stop signs of of competitive environment. She knows if you can pester comes along and tell us what you're doing better. That is a great challenge to any come to the stock market history is of seafloor and companies Reinventing themselves and unchallenging other isn't into anything special. She have to be awake to that and then the surgeon and tightened some of the earlier comments on culture and management large changes and it in company management.

00:46:44
If some of the CEO so you can we watch truck in an army tank are there for the long term to say walk away from those businesses that that's a message signal and one that we should be really challenging yourself AOL X case for a post covid-19. We will Conway but what does that mean for your investment? And what does it mean in terms of what you're looking for right now? Where are the opportunities amid this disruption?

00:47:25
I personally think it's a fantastic time to be a gross investor Olympic because every industry is up for grabs and they're there is destruction. Absolutely everywhere that one looks and in places which which one perhaps. Where is sacrosanct before this so so that sin and the way we were the very essence of officers office job in some form, but I I don't think it will be a little pretty cool that way. I think they'll be far more flexibility Batman has huge implications in terms of the whole office in transit plate infrastructure in terms of both of clay software business is a note say negative consequences in terms of being in terms of central office space except for the winners and losers. I think the Entertainer Celsius is fundamentally changed, you know, so

00:48:25
Launch today the Chagrin of of cinemas around the world and Max's is a game and you when you sell it for a dime time. I think there's a fitness Market Ellison's of the worlds. Are are your text for the next 5 or 10 years? I think we could be the change that quite anachronistic in the ideas of people travelling several miles to get to a gym to work out with strangers and then to share showers with them and rather than at at the time that you choose and then you can go to your own shower. This is it is quite a challenge. I think the way that we we consume that

00:49:25
Bye. Bye. Bye.

00:49:28
Absolute's moment out of everyone is examining how they do things and and Heidi interaction. I'm asking tastic for destructive allergies.

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That's it for this episode of what you missed this week. If you like the podcast make sure to subscribe and races at Apple or wherever you listen to your poker and June and every weekday to a daily Market close show from 3:30 to 5 p.m. On Greenback television and from 4 to 5 p.m. Streaming on Twitter nice listening and have a great weekend.

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